The current international situation surrounding Ukraine remains uncertain. Experts note that the visit of US special envoy Utkov to Moscow could be critical for initiating phased ceasefire talks. Rumors also persist about a possible visit by Chinese diplomat Kit Kelega to Kyiv, signaling increased international involvement in seeking solutions.
Expectations for these diplomatic efforts are moderate. Analysts believe Donald Trump aims to achieve at least a partial agreement on a ceasefire, possibly limited to airstrikes. However, there is skepticism about Russian concessions before August 8, as such steps could be perceived as a win for Trump and a sign of weakness for Putin. Still, maintaining a dialog with Trump is an important factor for the Kremlin.
Among potential scenarios, experts highlight a compromise where the parties agree to begin negotiations on a phased ceasefire at the next meeting in Istanbul. This would mark a step forward, but would not guarantee an immediate agreement or a peace treaty.
Territorial demands from Russia, regarding certain Ukrainian regions, remain in play and unresolved. The initial focus may be on halting airstrikes, which would be a symbolic gesture and have practical consequences for both sides. Experts believe such a measure could happen closer to autumn or the end of the year.
Regarding a potential peace agreement, specialists remain skeptical due to the lack of mutually acceptable terms. While a ceasefire is possible, the prospects for a comprehensive peace treaty seem remote. There is also a scenario in which no agreement is reached, prompting the US to increase sanctions against Russia and its partners.
In parallel, the start of US-Russian negotiations on strategic arms limitation and intermediate-range missiles may be part of a broader negotiation agenda.
