On August 13, the Civic Analytics Center "Vezha" hosted an online discussion with political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko about the upcoming summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Global attention is focused on this meeting, seen as a potential new stage in negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Fesenko emphasized that while he lacks high expectations for the summit, he considers it a key indicator for upcoming international processes. He stated that direct war termination or radical agreements are unlikely, but a renewed negotiation process is possible, with conflict resolution expected to be protracted and complex.
According to Fesenko, the US seeks step-by-step ceasefire arrangements, with possible territorial exchanges as a negotiation theme. He stressed that Ukraine will not agree to unilateral concessions or troop withdrawal from Donetsk region, in line with the government's stance and signals from international partners, including China.
Regarding summit objectives, Fesenko notes Trump aims to show progress, while Putin seeks restored trust with the US and increased international standing. China, Fesenko says, maintains a moderate rhetoric but will try to influence the negotiating process.
The discussion included potential future coordination between Russia and China, prospects for broader European involvement, major stakeholders’ diverging interests, and talks on future strategic arms control treaties.
Fesenko concluded that a "freezing" of the conflict, rather than a full termination, is the most realistic scenario. He highlighted Ukraine's ability to maneuver within the challenging international context and the absence of an immediate division of influence among the US, Russia, and China.
