On August 19, the Center for Public Energy "Vezha" held an expert conversation with military analyst Ivan Stupak about prospects for security guarantees for Ukraine after recently held talks in Washington. Special attention was paid to the announcement that the US intends to coordinate security guarantees for Ukraine after a possible ceasefire, specifically through a new commission headed by Marco Rubio. According to experts, there are currently no official documents or clear agreements, and prospects remain uncertain.
Ivan Stupak expressed skepticism about real security guarantees, citing previous experiences with changes in US administrations and the potential inconsistency of their policies. He emphasized the need to strengthen Ukraine’s own Armed Forces and to develop its domestic defense industry as the primary foundation for national security. The possibility of stationing foreign troops was discussed—Stupak doubts this is possible before the war ends, though an international peacekeeping mission may be realistic post-war.
The comments of Marco Rubio were covered, particularly Ukraine’s right to sign bilateral security agreements. The participants also noted the vague results of the Washington meeting, the lack of specifics, and the US's confirmation of support for Ukraine in general terms.
The possibility of direct negotiations between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin was analyzed. The expert believes such a meeting is unlikely before concrete agreements are reached. The panel also reviewed statements from Russian officials on the causes of war and the formation of new information narratives.
An important part of the discussion was the maintenance of an effective Ukrainian army in the postwar period. The main conclusion is that the Armed Forces remain the main guarantee of security for Ukraine, and external financing may be discussed with Western partners, especially the EU. The experts stressed that without consistent allied support and a strong domestic army, long-term security for Ukraine is not possible.
