In the “Analyzes” program, Kseniia Smyrnova and journalist Ostap Drozdov discuss critical issues facing modern Ukraine. The conversation begins with reflections on Ukraine’s 34th Independence anniversary in a challenging socio-political context. Even amid crisis, the formation of a new national identity and higher self-awareness among youth are highlighted, despite persistent emotional strain and the harsh realities of wartime.
Drozdov draws historical parallels and underscores the complexities of national identity and the need to reconsider statehood, noting the risks and opportunities for a new social contract. He explains the “Panurge’s herd” phenomenon, where collective sentiment often outweighs individual interests within Ukrainian society.
The discussion addresses the fifth wave of emigration caused by the war and its demographic effects, as well as the representation of Ukraine abroad. The internal social divide—between those who stayed and those who left—is examined, along with growing issues of envy and fairness, compounded by the elite’s early efforts for their own families’ safety.
Migrant return challenges, the war’s persistent unsolvability, changes in public and political rhetoric, and the issue of mobilization in the conflict’s fourth year are analyzed. The conversation covers dilemmas of justice, the shifting social contract, prospects for adaptation, and the presence of social stigma.
In the foreign policy context, the role of the US, Europe, allies and the likely “freezing” of the conflict as a potential path to ending the war are discussed. Drozdov stresses that a key to peace may be found in external negotiations, security guarantees and the realities of current global politics.
The experts conclude by emphasizing the importance of freedoms, conscious choice and adaptation to new global realities, as future peace depends on actual agreements, new security models and an end to the war, resulting in durable international guarantees for Ukraine.
