In recent days, Ukraine has faced renewed Russian energy terror, with attacks leading to blackouts in Kyiv and other areas. How is Ukraine responding and what could become Russia’s most painful vulnerability in return? Valeriy Klochok, head of the Veza Center for Civic Analytics, shares his perspective.
Klochok believes Ukraine’s ideal response would be to halt Russian oil and gas exports to Europe. However, Ukraine currently lacks the weapons and resources to achieve this. Discussions about Western long-range arms—such as Tomahawk missiles—are ongoing, though Klochok sees their acquisition as unlikely in the near term.
Political factors are crucial as well. By striking Ukraine’s energy sector, Russia aims to force Kyiv into an unfavorable peace and simultaneously strengthen its leverage over Europe. In this context, Putin recently visited Tajikistan, trying to maintain influence in Central Asia despite growing Chinese competition.
According to Klochok, Europe is gradually reducing its dependence on Russian energy, but the process remains challenging. Meanwhile, covert deals allow Russian gas to enter Europe under other labels, including as liquefied natural gas.
As for advanced weaponry, there is political support from the West but no firm commitment yet to supply longer-range systems or lift use restrictions. Klochok also highlights Ukraine’s increasing defense capabilities, including domestic drone production and the development of its own missile programs.
On the international stage, Klochok expresses skepticism about the rapid creation of new security formats or institutions, noting that genuine mechanisms to halt the war will remain out of reach until large-scale hostilities end. He concludes that Europe and Asia remain battlegrounds for influence, with Ukraine defending its interests and Russia gradually losing its grip.
