During the interview, the expert analyzed the current state of Russia's economy, stressing that an economic collapse is unlikely without a political crisis. According to him, only a combination of financial problems and a loss of government legitimacy, as previously seen in Russian history, could lead to profound change.
Key challenges include a significant budget deficit, which may reach 10 trillion rubles in 2023. There are limited options to cover this deficit, and the falling ruble is driving depositors to convert their money into foreign currency or other assets. This outflow from the banking system intensifies the liquidity crisis, reminiscent of the 1998 events.
The expert noted growing job cuts, reduced wage funds, and hidden unemployment. However, the greatest threat lies in the vulnerability of the banking system, which could lose liquidity if a relatively small segment of the population withdraws their deposits en masse.
External financing remains closed to the Russian economy, while internal reserves are limited and sanctions are bypassed via countries such as Kazakhstan. Nevertheless, these financial ties also pose risks to Russia's partners. The European Union and the United States are considering tougher sanctions, particularly against banks, the energy sector, and cryptocurrency transactions, but their effectiveness will depend on robust enforcement.
The analyst anticipates a major financial crisis in Russia by the end of the year, which may pave the way for political upheaval in 2025–2026. Western influence, plans for investment, and stricter demands on Russia are discussed, though significant changes are only likely if there is serious political destabilization. The discussion also covers the role of the US, EU, sanctions policy, and the need for Europe to achieve energy independence.
