On September 10, at the Veza Center for Public Analytics, an analytical discussion was held with Illia Neshodovskyi, head of analytics at AnS. The main topic was the aftermath of strikes on Polish territory, including the discovery of drone and missile debris near Elbląg and NATO's rather reserved response. According to Neshodovskyi, investors immediately reacted with a nearly 3% drop in the Polish stock market due to security concerns, highlighting Poland's insufficient air defense systems.
The discussion emphasized that NATO's response was mainly limited to expressions of concern, which likely only encourage further provocations from Russia. Among the main risks, experts identified scenarios involving sabotage groups and escalating threats on NATO’s eastern flank.
Significant attention was given to Western leaders' roles, particularly Donald Trump, who refrained from public statements. The likely strategies and motives behind Trump’s approach to sanctions and Russia were discussed, including his personal sympathy for the Russian president and concerns over a possible collapse of the Russian Federation that could strengthen China.
The discussion also examined Russia's economic situation: the analyst pointed out significant financial risks, macroeconomic problems, hidden unemployment, and the high likelihood of a severe banking crisis by the end of the year. Direct intervention by European and American partners via sanctions could accelerate Russia's financial destabilization and trigger a political crisis. The report also noted Europe's partial energy policy regarding Russia and many governments’ unwillingness to abandon Russian energy resources entirely.
To conclude, the expert emphasized that a large-scale financial crisis in Russia is imminent, but political factors could be decisive. European and American partners still have resources to strengthen sanctions—the issue is political will.
