Reports indicate that Vladimir Putin considers the mass return of Russian veterans from Ukraine, including convicted individuals, a potential threat to domestic stability and is taking steps to avoid chaos similar to that seen after the war in Afghanistan. Russia has already seen a rise in murders carried out by so-called "special military operation" veterans. Many of these veterans are given jobs in administration or are appointed school directors, but authorities aim to resettle them far beyond the Urals, away from major cities and strategic centers.
A scenario involving the potential freezing of the Russo-Ukrainian war is under discussion. At the same time, Western countries are reassessing their defense strategies in light of the United States' position, while considering China as a potential participant in peace efforts.
Ukraine continues to receive weapons primarily from Europe; German defense firm Rheinmetall has announced upcoming delivery of 18 mobile Skyranger anti-drone systems to Ukraine, which will be used to protect key strategic sites. Additionally, Ukraine and Europe are setting up joint production of drones and other weaponry within the EU.
European politicians note that the Ukrainian military is buying valuable time for other countries to prepare for possible Russian aggression. However, long-term financial support for Ukraine remains in question: the Ministry of Finance indicates a national budget deficit of 300 billion UAH by year's end.
Russia's technical capability has been substantially reduced, and analysts point to significant drops in its tank and vehicle reserves. The Russian budget deficit stands at 47 billion euros, but Moscow continues to finance its war, resorting to foreign borrowing.
The situation around Ukraine will likely remain difficult, with Western military and financial support as well as internal resilience in both Ukraine and Russia being key factors. Analysts also recommend closely monitoring developments in Belarus and the Baltic states.
