Recent developments around the attack on Poland have sparked a vigorous expert debate, particularly regarding China's role in resolving the crisis. The People's Republic of China has called for a diplomatic settlement of disputes, as stated by Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian after the incident.
Logistical ties between Poland and China are also strengthening: on September 8, the first container train set off from Warsaw to China as part of the new Silk Road. Meanwhile, the Polish authorities announced the closure of the border with Belarus due to upcoming military exercises.
Experts identified two main theories about China's involvement: whether Putin acted at Xi Jinping's instigation, or independently. The more likely scenario sees Putin acting on his own, seeking to tie China closer and use strategic uncertainty to pressure the West.
China currently lacks the leverage to openly mediate in European matters, so its reaction has been restrained. Meanwhile, Poland is gradually evolving into a logistics hub for Chinese goods entering Europe.
The discussion notes that Russian provocations aim not only to complicate Polish-Ukrainian relations but also fuel tensions within the EU and paint Ukraine negatively in European public opinion.
The conversation also addressed the influence of US administrations, especially Trump's approach, which has contributed to uncertainty in European countries' responses. Lukashenko is acting pragmatically, seeking to preserve his position amid pressures from Russia, the EU, and China.
Looking ahead, experts highlight the likelihood of new diplomatic contacts between the US and Russia that could impact the conflict's trajectory. The security situation in the region remains unstable, with analysts agreeing that Russia is interested in delaying and increasing tension in Europe.
