On September 16, at the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha," analyst Valerii Klochuk and political scientist Petro Oleshchuk discussed the current geopolitical situation around the war in Ukraine. The discussion focused on the relationships between the US, Europe, China, and Russia, as well as the manipulative rhetoric used by these parties to promote their interests.
US Treasury Secretary Besent stated that the war could end in 60–90 days if the US and Europe jointly impose sanctions, especially targeting Russia's trade with China and India. However, the positions of the main players differ significantly: the US wants Europe to be the first to introduce tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods while they themselves are not rushing to do so.
Considerable attention was paid to the actions of European countries, particularly Slovakia and Hungary, which have not fully refused Russian energy resources. Experts noted that although the US officially trades with Russia on a smaller scale, sanction rhetoric is often used for both domestic and international manipulation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insists on tougher measures regardless of the European stance, stressing the key role of EU external assistance in sustaining Ukraine’s military efforts.
The discussion also focused on the US military presence in Europe and the security guarantees for its allies—especially in the context of potential policy changes under a hypothetical Trump administration. Oleshchuk emphasized that Europe is currently not confident in unconditional guarantees from the US, and mutual distrust grows amid bold statements and political maneuvering regarding sanctions and NATO's role.
Another topic was Belarus and its leader Lukashenko, suspected of playing a double game between Russia, the West, and his own interests. Experts pointed out that regardless of official statements, Belarus remains deeply integrated into Russian structures, and the possibility of neutrality or leaving Russia’s orbit is extremely limited.
The discussion concluded that manipulations and trade or diplomatic stand-offs among global powers will continue to influence the war's outcome. Final decisions have not yet been made, and the joint positions of the EU, US, China, Russia, and Ukraine remain under dynamic review.
