On September 13, Trump published a letter on the Social platform addressed to NATO countries, calling for severe sanctions against Moscow if all members stop buying Russian oil, impose their own sanctions, and introduce high tariffs on Chinese goods. In his letter, Fredovich called Western oil purchases 'shocking' and claimed they weaken the alliance's negotiating position. However, the reality is far more complex than these political statements suggest.
Despite several years of sanctions, Russian oil continues flowing to NATO countries not only through official channels, but also via various circumvention schemes. Moscow earns around $113 billion annually from oil and gas exports, covering most of their $140 billion military expenditures. For example, Hungary and Slovakia openly buy about 8.7 million tons of Russian oil yearly via the 'Druzhba' pipeline; this is only a fraction of Moscow's total exports, much of which gets to the West through indirect routes, with the largest volume passing through India.
India increased its oil imports from Moscow from 2% to 40%—about 2 million barrels per day. Most of this crude is processed at Jamnagar, the world’s largest refinery, then exported to the EU and US as refined products without formal Russian origin. In just the first months of 2025, India imported $53 billion worth of Russian crude; since February 2023, the EU has received $17 billion worth of products from this refinery.
Singapore also acts as a major mixing hub, importing up to 500,000 tons of Russian oil each month. Despite EU price caps, European countries have imported about $42 billion in Russian oil-derived products via intermediaries—China, India, Turkey, the UAE, and Singapore.
A key role is played by the shadow fleet: over 1,000 old tankers, most without international insurance. Methods such as turning off transponders, broadcasting false positions, changing vessel flags and ownership, and ship-to-ship transfers at sea help conceal the origin of oil and evade controls.
Technically, it is possible to track tankers even when transponders are off; political will and improved monitoring by G7+ states are crucial for stopping these schemes. An effective step would be the adoption of a rule: any refined product made from Russian crude is considered Russian regardless of the country of processing. Parallel financial schemes—insurers and banks in the UAE, China, and Turkey—must also be targeted by sanctions.
If addressed, Moscow could lose a significant portion of its oil income, severely impacting its military budget. However, the core challenge is not technical but political: key countries must choose to act. Every day's delay brings millions to Moscow’s military effort, indirectly sustaining prolonged conflict.
