Moscow has long sought to increase its influence in African countries, especially in the Sahel region. However, recent events point to a loss of ground. Following the collapse of the Wagner Group and the death of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, the newly established African Corps was unable to maintain earlier projects and fell far behind Western competitors.
The military regimes of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, who had initially relied on Moscow for support against militants and expelled Western troops, are now disappointed. They are once again seeking assistance from the US and France. The West is cautiously considering renewed cooperation, including training local forces via third countries or engaging private contractors such as Erik Prince.
Jihadist activity in the Sahel is on the rise: nearly 11,000 people have died in the region over the past year, with major attacks shifting to Burkina Faso and coastal states. Wagner's reputation has deteriorated sharply due to crimes against civilians, and its economic projects have failed.
After Wagner left, new Russian units tried to fill the gap but faced military defeats and eroding trust. The Kremlin has not managed to restore effective control, creating a vacuum increasingly filled by the US, France, and private actors. Africa and the Sahel remain a stage for geopolitical rivalry, while the security situation continues to worsen.
Analysts emphasize that the main reason for Moscow's declining influence is that most resources are now focused on the war against Ukraine, limiting its overseas operations. The West is seizing this opportunity to regain ground and strengthen its presence in the region.
