On October 2, at the 'Vezha' Civic Monitoring Center, director Valerii Klochok and political scientist Petro Oleschuk discussed recent global political developments, especially the actions of Donald Trump.
The discussion focused on the recent US security guarantees to Qatar signed by Trump. This move signifies a major step in Middle Eastern policy, aiming to stabilize relations with traditional Arab partners following renewed tensions in the Gaza Strip. The deployment of US aircraft in Qatar highlights increased US attention to the region.
Oleschuk noted that US and Trump’s attention is now largely on the Middle East and Iran, while Ukraine is less of a priority. He suggested this may not be negative for Kyiv: US-European cooperation now allows arms sales from the US to be purchased by Europe and then delivered to Ukraine, thus making Ukrainian support less dependent on Trump’s personal stance.
The US President publicly acknowledges Russia’s responsibility for prolonging the war and calls for pressure to force it toward peace but admits that at this stage direct talks between Ukraine and Russia are impossible due to Moscow’s position. However, US military pressure in the Middle East may mount, focused on countering Iran and reinforcing America’s strategic presence.
Possibility of a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas was discussed, but experts agree that Hamas’s rejection could lead to more intensive military actions and possibly large-scale US operations. According to Oleschuk, this 'peace through strength' approach is likely in the Middle East, though not applicable to Ukraine, where a different strategy applies.
According to the expert, Trump aims for high-profile, though not always effective, outcomes, focusing now on the Middle East. This does not mean Ukraine suffers significantly; rather, American policy toward Ukraine is likely to continue in coordination with allies, while the main pressure will remain on key strategic regions.
