On October 6, political analyst Ihor Chalenko discussed the consequences of recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Ukrainian forces struck key refining facilities in Leningrad and Orenburg regions, as well as the Feodosia oil terminal in occupied Crimea. These facilities represent a significant share of Russia’s oil product output.
Between October 4 and 6, Ukrainian drones hit the Kirishi and Orsk refineries and the Feodosia oil terminal, causing extensive fires, evacuations, and disruptions in operations.
The attacks have damaged production lines for gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, resulting in fuel shortages. Analysts report a September drop of 18% in gasoline production and a 6% drop in diesel. Wholesale and retail fuel prices have increased, queues have formed at petrol stations, and some stations have closed, disrupting transport and supply chains.
In response to the deficit, Russia imports fuel from Belarus, China, Kazakhstan, and other Asian countries, although this only partially mitigates the problem due to high logistical costs and limited supplier capacity. Russia has also lowered fuel quality standards and is relying on internal reserves.
The resulting loss of production capacity has affected military logistics, making it harder to supply fuel to the army and weakening troop mobility. Reduced oil and gas revenue has increased budget deficits, led to tax hikes, food price inflation, and restrictions at petrol stations.
Experts warn that if attacks continue, the fuel deficit could rise to 40%, pushing the Russian economy toward stagnation, price surges, and potential social unrest. Ukrainian drone strikes have fundamentally changed the situation, causing significant damage to Russia’s economic and military capability.
