Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych discusses the situation surrounding Russia’s oil and gas sector, focusing on US strategy, OPEC+ decisions, and Ukraine's role.
Reiterovych highlights that the Russian energy sector has suffered major blows recently, becoming a focus of US strategy. The United States is pushing for further reductions in Russian oil and gas purchases, which the European Union has supported by pledging to stop importing these resources by the end of 2026.
On OPEC+, Reiterovych notes that despite reports of a major output increase (up to 500,000 barrels), the actual agreed increase is much smaller: 137,000 barrels per day from November, which does not deliver a maximal blow to Russia's position. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries have taken an intermediate stance, which helps Russia maintain high oil prices despite production limits—though Russia frequently exceeds its quotas.
Meanwhile, the US is actively promoting alternatives to Russian energy by supplying LNG to Europe. Many European nations are transitioning to American gas, and since 2015-16, Poland has purchased US LNG and built the necessary infrastructure, strengthening cooperation with the US, including in military spheres.
According to Reiterovych, Ukraine's role involves striking Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure. Up to a third of Russia's oil refinery capacity has already been affected in recent weeks, causing gasoline shortages in several Russian regions and occupied Crimea, and potentially creating a deficit for backup power generators if such strikes continue.
The expert notes that the Trump administration has never openly condemned such Ukrainian actions. On the contrary, the US is reportedly ready to provide intelligence to Ukraine to enable more precise targeting deep inside Russia. This dual approach allows the US to displace Russia as a competitor in energy markets while also supporting Ukraine.
Reiterovych concludes that Ukraine must take full advantage of this "window of opportunity." Further political pressure on Saudis and OPEC+ may significantly weaken Russia by year's end, opening up new prospects for Ukraine and the West to resolve broader issues, including the war.
He emphasizes the importance of a multi-faceted strategy in which Ukraine plays a pivotal role.
