Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel placed responsibility for hardening Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive policies on Central European countries, particularly Poland and the Baltic States. She highlighted that these countries’ leaders’ unwillingness to continue direct dialogue with Russia could have been one of the reasons behind Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Merkel also linked the outbreak of war to the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that Putin's isolation hindered serious negotiations with him.
According to Portnikov, such statements reveal Merkel’s lack of understanding regarding the real causes of the conflict. The main root of the war, he argues, was Putin’s desire to restore what he considers genuine Russian statehood within the borders of 1991 and keep former Soviet republics in a “political fridge,” blocking their membership in Western alliances that could offer them protection from Russian expansion.
Portnikov points out that, during Merkel’s tenure, Germany actively opposed giving Ukraine and Georgia a Membership Action Plan at the NATO Bucharest summit, reinforcing Putin’s illusions about his influence over former Soviet territories. At the same time, Merkel supported Ukraine’s EU association agreement, apparently not seeing it as a threat to Russia or a source of conflict.
The article stresses that energy projects – especially the Nord Stream gas pipeline – were a major part of Merkel’s policy towards Russia. She saw the pipeline as an economic anchor tying Moscow to Europe and as a restraint against aggression. However, for Putin, the project meant bypassing Ukraine’s transit system and gaining new leverage to pressure Ukraine economically, particularly in the event of conflict.
After the completion of Nord Stream 2 – which Merkel sought to secure by lobbying U.S. President Joe Biden to lift sanctions – Putin intensified his aggression and finally decided on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Western leaders, Portnikov argues, underestimated the risks of such strategic moves despite repeated warnings from Ukraine and its allies.
Portnikov concludes that even experienced politicians like Merkel never fully understood Putin’s intentions towards Ukraine, affecting political calculations across Europe. This misjudgment exemplifies how underestimating Russia’s ambitions can have far-reaching consequences for the continent.
