In his address, Vitaliy Portnikov analyzes Russia's renewed campaign of attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, noting that similar strikes caused mass blackouts during the winter of 2022-2023, testing Ukrainian society's resilience. He recalls experiencing a blackout in Lviv, when the city plunged into darkness, and draws parallels to the current situation.
Portnikov asserts that Russia has several objectives: weakening Ukraine's economy and defense sector, disrupting logistics—especially supply lines to the front by targeting railway infrastructure. However, he posits that the main aim is to intimidate civilians and pressure Ukraine into surrender by worsening living conditions.
He emphasizes Putin's reliance on outdated scenarios and argues that the Kremlin misjudges the effect of bombing on a population's will to resist. Citing World War II examples, he notes that bombings tend to fuel anger and strengthen resolve to resist, rather than prompt surrender.
Portnikov also examines the psychological dimension of Kremlin strategy—a desire to collectively punish Ukrainians for their independence. He highlights how Kyiv is perceived as the symbol of Ukrainian statehood, making attacks on the capital an attempt to undermine the country's existence as a whole.
He raises the importance of material and political support from allies, the need to strengthen air defense, and considers the prospects and challenges of introducing a Western air defense zone over parts of Ukraine. Portnikov further suggests confiscating Russian assets as compensation for destruction.
Portnikov responds to audience questions on the effect of strikes on Russian domestic policy, the role of China and oil product markets, and international perspectives—especially regarding shifts in Western political alignments. He concludes that targeting energy infrastructure will not make Ukraine capitulate but will instead reinforce its determination to resist aggression.
