This evening, reports emerged about Donald Trump's upcoming phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as a scheduled meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky. Earlier, Trump announced plans to discuss the war in Ukraine and a potential offensive with Zelensky.
Analysts note that Trump seeks to use ceasefire rhetoric as leverage in international politics, but he is not taking concrete steps to strengthen sanctions against Russia, instead hoping to improve relations with Moscow for leverage against China. Russia's economic resilience remains an issue, and US military aid to Ukraine has not grown substantially.
The discussion highlights the roles of India and China. The share of Russian oil in India's imports has surged to 34%. While India has stated its intention to reduce Russian oil purchases, in practice, both state and private companies continue to buy, with most transactions in Indian rupees—funds that Russia cannot freely transfer abroad.
China remains a key buyer of discounted Russian energy, occasionally paying in yuan. Efforts by the US and Trump to disrupt these flows—including threats to impose tariffs up to 500%—have not been successfully implemented.
Meanwhile, the European Parliament has endorsed plans for a complete EU ban on Russian energy imports starting in 2026, with limited exceptions. Whether Europe is technically prepared for this transition, however, is still uncertain.
Experts remain skeptical about the effectiveness of Trump's and the EU's approach to resolving energy and political disputes through threats or slogans, as well as about the actual impact of leaders like Viktor Orbán, who continues to maintain ties with Russia.
