On October 22, the Veza Public Analytics Center interviewed serviceman and political consultant Oleksandr Antonyuk about Russian sociological surveys, the state of Russia’s economy, mobilization readiness, and the potential trajectory of the war. Kremlin sociological center VTsIOM claims a majority of Russians are ready to limit their needs for the country's defense, but Antonyuk argues this is propaganda not reflective of true regional sentiments. He notes that the best indicator is the Kremlin’s reluctance to announce full mobilization due to fear of widespread protests.
Antonyuk points out Russia’s economic situation is deteriorating, with closures of strategic enterprises, a growing budget deficit, and decreased contract army payments. Nevertheless, resources still enable Russia to wage war, though effectiveness is declining. The Kremlin strives to sustain combat operations as long as possible due to President Putin’s political ambitions, despite the high cost of the military campaign.
Antonyuk analyzes Russia’s mobilization strategy: the mobilization reserve exists but using it would worsen economic issues and risk internal protests, particularly among younger people. This could affect the Russian regime’s stability, potentially leading to palace coups rather than nationwide popular uprisings.
Regarding a possible Putin-Trump summit in Budapest, Antonyuk sees the chance as low, though preparatory processes at the ministerial level are ongoing. According to Antonyuk, the outcome of the war greatly depends on China’s position, as China supports Russia, and on global developments in energy and technology.
He warns not to take optimistic predictions about a quick end to the war at face value: hostilities may continue in various forms for years, and political change in Russia might only happen if the opposition and insider elites receive external support. Antonyuk highlights the importance of closely monitoring Russia's economic and political processes to forecast the further course of the war.
