On October 24, experts from the Naridka Vezha Center held an online discussion on the consequences of new US sanctions imposed on Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.
PhD in Economics Ivan Us noted that India and China are unlikely to fully abandon Russian oil under US pressure, preferring to act in line with their economic interests. India may adjust its oil procurement strategy by returning to previous suppliers from the Gulf countries, but wishes to avoid the appearance of yielding to the US.
OPEC is considering increasing oil production to fill the potential market gap left by Russian oil. Saudi Arabia, as OPEC's leader, is already implementing a strategy focused on boosting production to regain market share, similar to its approach in the 1980s.
The new US sanctions may take effect in late November, and much depends on Russian negotiations and reactions. If implemented, the US may coordinate with EU countries, particularly given the interests of Belgium and Germany.
The discussion also addressed Ukraine’s reparations credit, backed by frozen Russian assets. Disbursement hinges on the creation of necessary EU legal frameworks, which is currently facing challenges due to the interests of some member states, especially Belgium and Germany.
Experts emphasized the oil market's dynamic nature, highlighting that global independence from Russian energy will depend on unified action by OPEC, the US, the EU, and the internal policies of India and China.
