Over the past year, the cocoa market has experienced dramatic shifts. After hitting a record high of over $12,000 per ton, cocoa prices have now fallen to around $6,000—the lowest level in almost two years. This sharp drop followed a period of shortage caused by disastrous harvests in West Africa due to extreme weather conditions.
With the return of normal rainfall in the region, crop prospects look optimistic. The 2025-2026 season is expected to bring a surplus of cocoa, allowing supply to meet and even exceed demand for the first time in years. Meanwhile, the governments of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana increased the purchase price for farmers, encouraging greater market supply. However, damaged roads and transport problems have slowed exports. Despite these issues, the market is responding to expectations, and prices are falling ahead of actual supply increases.
High prices recently led to reduced consumer demand for chocolate, especially premium products, further pushing prices down. Some producers substituted part of the cocoa butter with cheaper oils such as palm oil, but with raw material prices falling, recipes may return to normal soon.
South America is also expanding cocoa production. Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, and Colombia are enlarging plantations, gradually changing the global supply landscape. As cocoa trees mature only several years after planting, these changes will be seen slowly over time.
For consumers, this means cocoa-based products may become cheaper over the next several months. However, chocolate makers are slow to lower prices due to the production cycle and existing inventory, so the price drop will be gradual. Retailers also tend to maintain higher price points for longer.
Risks remain: climate change, disease among trees, and epidemics affecting plantations can disrupt supply and push prices up again. For now, the market appears stable, and experts expect cocoa prices to remain low—making chocolate more affordable—at least for the next few months.
