Recently, the US market—especially companies focused on artificial intelligence (AI)—has experienced significant changes. Major players such as Nvidia, whose shares dropped by 7% in a week and another 3% the next day, show volatility despite spectacular valuations. Meta has lost 15% of its market value in just two weeks, even after strong quarterly results, raising investors’ doubts about the AI market.
The main issue is that company spending on AI exceeds their current revenues. For example, OpenAI plans to spend $1.4 trillion over the next eight years but currently earns only $20 billion per year, anticipating losses of $74 billion by 2028. The lack of clear business models and profit forecasts is pushing firms to take on debt: this year, tech giants issued $140 billion in corporate bonds—23% higher than last year.
Additional challenges include technical delays, energy shortages for data centers, and insufficient chip supply. Even large firms like Meta and OWAVE are facing infrastructure construction delays and stock price declines. Despite this, AI infrastructure investments are rising, with markets expecting over $400 billion in capital expenditure this year alone.
Despite financial risks, technology companies continue investing in hopes of long-term growth and future profits. The situation is being compared to the late-1990s dot-com bubble, but today’s companies exhibit greater profitability and more resilient business models. However, there is still no guarantee of quick returns on AI investments.
Technological risks also remain significant: delays in chip deliveries, data center construction, and energy supply. The Chinese factor puts additional competitive pressure, as similar AI models may be developed at lower costs.
Final assessment: Artificial intelligence has created a new high-risk, high-reward investment trend. The key questions for the future are how many companies will survive, and whether investors will see real profits.
