In November 2025, the world faced an acute beef shortage. This triggered a significant price increase and forced countries to revise their economic strategies. According to the UN, the beef price index in February 2025 reached 131.9, up 11% from the previous year.
The cattle herd in the United States has been shrinking for years due to a lack of investment and rising demand. Herd recovery is not expected until 2027–2028, keeping the US dependent on imports and fueling further price growth. The average price of ground beef has risen 45% over the past five years.
China's beef imports and consumption are also on the rise: In 2023, imports reached $14.2 billion. Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines show similar trends, with Asia becoming a main driver of demand.
The main exporters are now Brazil and Australia. Brazil exported 370,900 tons of beef in the first two months of 2025 alone, and Australia shipped 198,500 tons over the same period. Brazilian beef accounts for about 50% of China's imports, while Australian beef is highly valued in Japan, Korea, the US, and China.
Ukraine has unexpectedly increased its exports: In October 2025, it shipped 1,650 tons of live cattle, and by year's end, a total of 14,940 tons of beef worth $34.6 million. Key markets include Lebanon, Kazakhstan, Libya, Azerbaijan, China, Uzbekistan, Moldova, Turkey, Georgia, and Jordan.
The US tried to keep beef prices down by raising import tariffs, but this move led to higher domestic prices. Australia has outpaced the US in China; by August 2025, American beef exports to China had dropped by a factor of 13.
The global beef market is changing: Brazil and Australia are strengthening their positions, Asia is consuming more, and Ukraine is emerging as a global player. This highlights the vulnerability of traditional animal husbandry to international political and economic decisions.
