November in eastern England was dry and warm—ideal for sowing cereals. However, farmers are discontent: grain prices have dropped to multi-year lows, making production unprofitable. This situation is not unique to the UK but reflects a Europe-wide trend; global grain stocks are up, while producers face fierce competition from cheap imports and high production costs.
Futures prices have fallen by more than 20% over the past year. Fertilizer and fuel costs remain high since the energy crisis, and farmers increasingly sell agricultural equipment at auctions due to lack of funds for maintenance or upgrades. Small farms are forced to consolidate to survive, and agricultural profitability is declining.
Consumers see little benefit from cheaper grain—wheat accounts for only 10–15% of the cost of a loaf of bread. Most of the price comes from energy, packaging, logistics, processing, wages, and retail margins.
The sugar industry also faces crisis—prices have plummeted and production costs have risen, forcing farmers to grow sugar beet at a loss. Since the EU scrapped sugar quotas in 2017, several French sugar factories have closed, and beet plantings could fall a further 6–10% next year.
Competition from Brazil and India—with lower costs and lighter regulations—adds to pressure on European producers. Meanwhile, UK farmers post-Brexit have received fewer subsidies and face potential new inheritance tax reforms, pushing many to sell assets or change the structure of their holdings.
This season, EU grain output is likely to be the lowest in a decade due to weather anomalies and sowing challenges. This heightens food sovereignty risks and accelerates consolidation. For Ukraine, these trends offer both threats and opportunities, depending on modernization and agricultural export capacity. The global market, meanwhile, is indifferent to local crises—only overall supply and demand matter.
