This discussion analyzes the strategic aims of Ukraine and Russia regarding this winter. Ukraine has raised the topic of an economic zone as a compromise, refuting arguments that Russia is only interested in peace for trade and economic growth.
Russia’s main bet is on intensive terror against civilians and massive front-line attacks to break Ukrainian resistance and force capitulation by spring. The US is deploying diplomatic manipulations, encouraging distance from Ukraine among partners, to shift responsibility for stalled peace onto Kyiv.
Ukraine’s strategy is to hold out until spring, not allow breakthroughs at the front, not lose partners, and keep its rear intact. A key factor is Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil production infrastructure, including platforms in the Caspian Sea. This affects Russia’s budget revenues but may push up world oil prices, which could benefit Moscow.
The effectiveness of strikes on the "shadow tanker fleet" carrying Russian oil is discussed. As a result, some operators refuse to cooperate with Russia, but the volumes transported are relatively modest for Russia’s budget.
Strikes on oil infrastructure are an asymmetric leverage tool and a demonstration of Ukraine's capabilities. However, they do not directly change partner states' policies or increase arms supplies. These measures are intended to complicate Russia's economic operations and ultimately encourage the EU to reconsider cooperation with Moscow. Ukraine gains a tactical advantage, despite global energy market risks.
In conclusion, the war remains non-linear, and preventing Russia from accomplishing its strategy is already a tactical success for Ukraine, laying the ground for future change.
