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Demilitarization Options for Donbas: Elections, Referendum, and Russia's Position


Analysis of possible elections or a referendum on Donbas status, Russian officials' statements, and responses from Ukrainian experts.

The President of Ukraine has suggested the possibility of holding elections or a referendum to determine the status of Donbas, including the option of establishing an economic free and demilitarized zone with the stipulation that Russian forces withdraw from the region. Putin's aide, Yuri Ushakov, stated that while Russian armed forces may leave Donbas, units of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) could remain. Experts point out that Rosgvardiya is heavily armed and has participated in combat in Ukraine, raising concerns over the effectiveness of any proposed demilitarization.

Ushakov also clarified that, regardless of the arrangements, Russia intends to maintain control over Donbas either through negotiations or, if necessary, by force. President Zelensky's suggestion of a referendum has introduced a new element into the ongoing negotiations, with Zelensky stressing that any final status should be decided by public consultation. Ukrainian experts interpret such proposals as part of ongoing bargaining and highlight that legally, Donbas remains Ukrainian territory; only a national referendum could change administrative boundaries.

Examples of demilitarized zones globally, such as the one between North and South Korea, are considered as potential models for Donbas. However, experts note that reaching a fundamental compromise is difficult: Russia is not interested in deploying international peacekeepers, and issues of governance and civilian life in the area remain unresolved. The discussion of elections or a referendum is largely viewed as a political step within a complex diplomatic process involving international partners.