Aluminum is integral to many industries, from food cans to aerospace. In early November 2025, its price remains stable at around $2,800 per ton, yet the metal might soon see a surge due to a developing supply deficit.
China, the world's top producer, has capped output for ecological reasons and no longer boosts global supply. Expansion projects in Indonesia and elsewhere are delayed until at least 2027–2028 due to high energy costs and regulatory challenges. In the US and Europe, industrial growth is also stifled by energy crises and slow investment, putting existing plants at risk of closure.
Major drivers of demand now include data centers, electric vehicles, and green energy. A single data center may use 500 tons of aluminum, while surging EV production will require an extra 7.5 million tons by 2030. Renewable energy adds another 3–4 million tons a year to demand.
US trade policies, notably a 50% tariff on aluminum imports, have fueled price spikes and local shortages. Canada, the largest supplier to the US, may redirect shipments to Europe. Globally, production cuts and plant closures due to energy and policy woes deepen the deficit.
For Ukraine, the result is more expensive aluminum—from cans to building components. Domestic production is limited mainly by war and energy constraints, restricting Ukraine's ability to benefit from the global price rise despite having significant reserves.
Analysts expect prices to exceed $3,000 per ton by mid-2026, with persistent structural shortages projected to shape the aluminum market until at least 2028.
