During an online podcast with Serhiy Sternenko, economist Yuriy Hayday discussed key factors in the economic resilience of Russia and Ukraine amid the full-scale war. The guest analyzed how Russia managed to maintain economic stability in the first year after the invasion, thanks to macroeconomic buffers, record export earnings from energy resources, controlled capital outflow, and administrative redistribution of resources to the defense sector. Sanctions were initially imposed gradually, giving Russia room for maneuver, but they have progressively put pressure on key export sectors, particularly oil.
The importance of support from China and India in maintaining Russian energy exports was highlighted as a significant survival factor for Russia's economy. At the same time, structural transformation of the Russian economy has led to losses in the private sector and increased dependence on the defense industry. Rising budget deficits, reduced regional investment, deterioration of transport, fuel shortages due to attacks on refineries, and declining consumer demand all indicate long-term degradation.
Among the reasons for delaying an economic collapse in Russia, Hayday also pointed to changes in tax policy affecting small businesses and an increase in money supply via state lending. However, such measures are limited in effect and duration.
The Ukrainian economy, according to the expert, operates thanks to steady international financial aid and grain exports, made possible by restoring Black Sea shipping. A major risk for Ukraine remains its reliance on external funding and loss of human capital. As of 2025-2026, Russia can maintain the current intensity of hostilities for up to a year, after which its resources will be seriously depleted.
Sternenko and Hayday noted that strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure, blockade of key ports, and reduction of oil revenues could critically weaken Russia’s war effort. The Russian economy is described as facing sustained long-term stagnation with risks of degradation, budget deficits, mounting debt, and increased financial risks. The quality of reforms and readiness for European integration will determine the future resilience of Ukraine’s economy after the war.
