The end of winter 2026 brought an unprecedented crisis for global aviation. The escalation of war between the US and Israel, and Iran backed by Russia, effectively paralyzed key air routes through the Persian Gulf.
Strict flight bans were imposed from Bahrain to the UAE, forcing airlines to seek alternatives. The southern route via Egypt and Saudi Arabia became congested, while the northern path via the Caucasus and Afghanistan became the main link between Europe and Asia. Lack of air traffic control in some regions increased risks for long-haul flights.
Jet fuel prices soared to record levels due to attacks on refining plants and the blockade of the Hormuz Strait. American air giants faced sharp cost spikes, while European airlines with hedged fuel contracts partially offset losses. Budget carriers are exiting the market as operational costs rise.
The situation is further complicated by surging insurance premiums for war risks. British Airways and Lufthansa have suspended all flights to the Gulf region. Cargo operations dropped, disrupting supplies of critical goods such as pharmaceuticals.
Passengers now face surcharge-driven fare increases of 15–25% and the end of cheap tickets. The industry is becoming more expensive and less accessible, prioritizing safe routes and energy autonomy. The events of 2026 could permanently change the geography and logic of global air travel, accelerating a shift away from oil-dependent transit routes and towards new aircraft security technologies.
