On July 16, an analytical discussion took place between Valeriy Klachuk, head of the Vezha Center of Public Analytics, and economist Oleh Penzen regarding a new round of sanctions against Russia and the global reaction to the war in Ukraine.
The process of adopting the EU’s 18th sanctions package was discussed. The main focus was on the proposal for a new oil price cap for Russian exports—a floating threshold set 15% below the Benchmark Brent price. However, a final agreement on the size has not been reached: member states have different interests, particularly Malta, Greece, and Slovakia, which register the largest number of tankers and have economic ties to oil shipping.
Experts note that current market realities make very tough sanctions unlikely. As global oil prices rise, previous price ceilings have become ineffective. The US, for its part, is cautious: Donald Trump has declared he could independently impose sanctions and 100% tariffs on importers of Russian oil, but practical steps remain uncertain.
Special attention was paid to Russia's dependency on China: Russia's budget shortfall could be covered by Chinese credit, reducing the impact of sanctions and allowing the war to continue. The debate also covered leverages on China and the difficulty of EU policy coordination toward Beijing, given the diverse interests of member states and their trade with China.
In conclusion, the experts agree: no major breakthroughs should be expected from new EU or US sanctions. Change is only possible through coordinated pressure on China, but such European unity is currently lacking.
