Recently, a new story has emerged around US sanctions on Russian oil imports, especially regarding the strategic partnership with India. India has made ambiguous statements: on one hand, it says it will not abandon Russian oil, but on the other, it has announced the purchase of 7 million barrels of American, Canadian and Abu Dhabi oil as a gesture towards the US.
India explains it has long-term contracts with Russian suppliers which cannot be canceled without severe financial consequences. Experts note that rejecting Russian oil could cost Indian refiners $5–11 billion a year. However, gestures like this purchase have little impact: India imports between 2 and 5 million barrels of oil daily, so a single shipment is marginal.
The imposition of secondary US sanctions is criticized, as pressure on India is exerted even before any actual break with Russia. India appears to be adopting Trump-style negotiation tactics, balancing interests and demonstrating readiness for compromise.
Meanwhile, there's discussion about Donald Trump's possible attendance at the 80th Victory Day anniversary in Beijing, to which Vladimir Putin and European leaders are also invited. Experts see Trump’s participation as unlikely and unwise, considering political context and the reputational risks for the US.
Analysts believe no dramatic breakthroughs should be expected soon in US-India relations or peace initiatives in the Russia-Ukraine war. The situation’s effect on military aid to Ukraine remains a topic for further expert debate.
