Vitaliy Portnikov reviews the latest statements by US President Donald Trump regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and his suggestions for peace agreements with Russia. Special attention is given to the upcoming summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled to take place in Alaska.
Portnikov notes that Trump has sharply changed his rhetoric over the past week: moving from criticism of Ukraine to tough statements against Russia, including ultimatums and sanctions threats. However, none of the promised measures—such as imposing 100% tariffs against Russian products and countries purchasing Russian oil—have been implemented in practice.
The author highlights the challenges of isolating Russia economically given the existence of two global economic blocs: the West and the so-called Global South. Major buyers of Russian energy resources—China, India, Turkey, Brazil, Hungary, Slovakia—have not faced strict US sanctions.
Portnikov points to Trump's lack of real leverage to end the war. The administration's focus is on trying to separate Russia from China, while avoiding excessive support for Ukraine to prevent deepening Russia-China cooperation.
The author underscores how complex upcoming negotiations are likely to be, expressing skepticism about the possibility of a breakthrough at the interstate summit. Even if the Alaska meeting occurs, Portnikov believes Trump lacks a clear strategy and cannot guarantee a quick end to the war. The summit is unlikely to bring significant progress, and Trump's shifting rhetoric reflects his effort to avoid responsibility and seek new political gains.
The article also analyzes Russia's strategy for Ukraine, the Kremlin’s aim to revise borders and return to the pre-1991 situation. Portnikov warns of demographic and geopolitical risks for Ukraine, especially given unpredictable decisions by global leaders and potential changes in the positions of the US and Europe.
In conclusion, Portnikov argues that Ukraine still has a high chance of retaining its statehood thanks to Western support, but the coming challenges will be long-term and require complex decisions and efforts from all parties.
