In recent months, the demand for Russian oil has changed. India, formerly the biggest buyer of Urals crude, sharply reduced its imports in July due to the end of significant discounts and growing US pressure, as Washington threatened sanctions against countries continuing to buy Russian oil.
Against this backdrop, China has increased its purchases. Chinese refineries ordered 15 cargoes of Urals crude for October-November delivery, amounting to over 10 million barrels in total, which helps compensate for India's reduced demand. However, China’s purchases—about 75,000 barrels per day in August—are still far below India’s previous daily imports of over a million barrels, though nearly double the level at the start of the year.
The main reason for these shifts is the risk of US secondary sanctions. China is keen on buying oil at a discount but risks facing US restrictions if Washington decides to act more decisively. For now, the US is hesitant to introduce new sanctions, fearing effects on global prices.
India, meanwhile, is diversifying its sources of oil imports, increasing supplies from the Middle East and Africa to reduce reliance on Moscow. Still, replacing such large volumes quickly is nearly impossible, leaving a market gap of 600,000–700,000 barrels a day.
Ultimately, China supports Russian exports, but cannot fully compensate for the loss of the Indian market. The threat of secondary sanctions remains pivotal: countries either demand deeper discounts or reduce imports, pressuring Russian oil exporters’ revenues.
Analysts predict that in 2025–2026, oil supply will exceed demand, making supply diversification easier. For now, the market’s future depends on US policy and the reactions of key players.
