The past week saw significant international developments that greatly influenced the political situation around the war in Ukraine. Following the Anchorage summit on the 15th, key meetings took place in Washington, and focus shifted to China's potential involvement in future negotiations.
After the summit, US media coverage was largely critical. Even traditionally conservative outlets like Fox News and the New York Post expressed neutral or negative views on the summit's outcome and Trump's role. Analysts suggest this prompted Trump to alter his rhetoric during subsequent meetings in Washington.
For Russia, the main achievement from Anchorage was the separation of ceasefire talks from other negotiation topics. However, the likelihood of a direct meeting between Zelensky and Putin is currently extremely low. Putin is also not expected to engage in new talks until his planned visit to China at the end of August.
After this visit, a new phase of negotiations may begin—dominated by US-China dialogue, which could shape global diplomatic dynamics in the coming months. Putin appears intent on positioning Russia as a mediator, leveraging topics like the Northern Sea Route and the Arctic. However, experts doubt Russia’s success in playing this intermediary role.
Attention is also focused on the India-China-US triangle. Although India currently purchases arms from different partners, in the long run it is expected to move closer to the US, since China poses an existential challenge and Pakistan a dual threat for India.
In summary, global negotiations concerning the war in Ukraine may shift to a format where the US, Russia, China, and potentially other major players shape future diplomacy.
