On October 13, the "Vezha" Analytical Center hosted a discussion with political scientist Ihor Chalenko on current international affairs. The main topic was a warning from European Commission Vice-President Kaja Kallas about a potential conflict between Europe and Russia, following a border incident in Estonia and frequent airspace violations in the Baltic states.
The speakers noted that despite Europe's rhetoric about not provoking Russia, Russian actions are becoming increasingly assertive—more provocations with drones and demonstrations of military presence. They emphasized the need to transform Ukraine's economic strength into defensive capability and for European defense policy to be coordinated with NATO.
Special attention was paid to Kaja Kallas' statements on supporting Ukraine. The discussion covered the possible provision of weapons, including Tomahawk missiles, and the reactions of US and Russian officials, specifically Donald Trump and Dmitry Medvedev. Chalenko pointed out that Trump is raising stakes by negotiating with Russia and China, demonstrating political flexibility while not providing clear guarantees about transferring long-range weapons to Ukraine.
Another segment discussed China's influence on the Russia-Ukraine war, especially in light of potential US-China talks in October. Each player has its own interest: China is strengthening its position ahead of a summit, Russia is seeking new partners, and the US signals readiness for focused negotiations.
In conclusion, participants stated that despite de-escalation talks, the risk of broader conflict remains real, and key decisions depend on international agreements and the actions of leaders from the US, Europe, Russia, and China.
