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Trump, Putin and Peace: Will Personal Antipathies Affect the End of the War?


Vitaly Portnikov analyzes Trump's statements on the war, Putin's role, the prospects for negotiations, and denuclearization ideas involving China.

Donald Trump has once again stated he will decide on the Russia-Ukraine war within a week or two if Putin does not want to meet with Zelensky. He emphasizes "very serious consequences" could follow. At the same time, Trump continues to praise Putin for attending the Alaska summit, calling it a significant concession and a successful day, despite the lack of progress on ending the war.

Trump attaches particular importance to the issue of nuclear arms reduction, urging not only Russia and the US but also China to participate. However, Beijing believes its nuclear capacity is far smaller, making trilateral denuclearization talks rather unrealistic. The expert notes that this is another of Trump's phantom ideas, out of touch with actual political realities, though Putin uses this as a lever to influence the US.

Trump argues that ending the war would have been easy under his presidency, relying on his personal relationship with Putin, and blames Biden for the conflict's start. Portnikov asserts that this view is far from reality. Trump attributes the reason for war to Putin's antipathy towards Zelensky, and believes swapping the president would solve the conflict.

Portnikov stresses that no Ukrainian president unwilling to surrender on Russia's terms will be acceptable to Putin. Zelensky did all he could to find a path to peace, but it is the refusal to capitulate, not personalities, that annoys Putin. The same held true with Poroshenko.

If Trump does not understand this, his concepts for ending the war are flawed. The idea of choosing a president more convenient for Putin would not bring peace. Portnikov urges a realistic appraisal of the motives and interests at play in this war.