The discussion addressed whether China could assist Russia in its war against Ukraine, emphasizing the considerable significance of the China factor. The expert believes the future of the war largely depends on Putin’s upcoming visit to Xi Jinping, expected later this week. According to the expert, Putin seeks approval to continue the war and wants to determine if China will provide economic support and how it will respond to potential new tariffs from the US and EU.
Possible actions by China include sharply restricting economic transactions with Russia, reducing raw material purchases, and limiting the supply of goods vital to the Russian economy. Since Russia relies on exports to China and India, any cessation of cooperation could drastically reduce Russia’s revenues, forcing further wage cuts, shorter work weeks, and cuts to social payments.
The expert assesses Russia’s current economic condition as 3—4 out of 10, noting that resources remain but are limited. Some economists suggest Russia could hold out for another two years, but there is a risk of severe weakening or even the breakup of the country.
A new EU sanctions mechanism involving secondary restrictions is discussed, aiming to limit goods trans-shipped through third countries into Russia’s military industry. The importance of improving sanctions monitoring is stressed to avoid evasion.
In summary, the expert concludes that future developments hinge on China’s stance, coordinated US-EU economic pressure, and effective enforcement of sanctions against Russia.
