On August 29, the Veza Center for Public Analytics hosted its regular Friday expert discussion. Head of the center Valeriy Klachuk invited noted experts: political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, political analyst Kostiantyn Matvienko, and Ilya Neskhodovsky, head of analytics at a network, to discuss major global processes—the roles of the US and China and the current state and prospects of peace talks on Ukraine.
The discussion opened by addressing technological trends poised to impact world affairs: rapid development of artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, blockchain, and cosmic research. The experts highlighted that the US currently defines much of global politics, while China steadily builds up influence but remains hampered as a full counterweight by internal issues and technology sanctions.
In economics, panelists stressed the erosion of world trade institutions, trade wars, the weakening of the dollar, and China’s financial challenges—including a real estate crisis and a chip shortage caused by Western sanctions.
Special attention was paid to the challenges of peace and war in Ukraine. Experts noted the complexity of talks, the danger of proposals such as demilitarized zones or territorial concessions, and the influence of negotiations in the US, as well as efforts by some international actors to push mutually unacceptable conditions. Participants voiced skepticism about real compromise in the present circumstances.
Much of the exchange centered on a prospective “bipolar” global outline, and the complex roles of China, the US, and the risks for Europe in case of its passivity. The consensus: Ukraine must strengthen its armed forces and diplomacy, and talks should focus first on security guarantees, not loss of territory.
China’s position was closely examined: despite formally neutral rhetoric, China and its allies’ involvement in the war against Ukraine is indirect, and recent economic ties with Russia have shrunk due to falling demand and Russia’s own limits.
Experts concluded that, in the near future, only a new round of talks—not a final settlement—should be expected; the conflict persists, and Ukraine remains a key player in the evolving context of global politics.
