Vitaliy Portnikov summarizes the political outcomes of major events in China, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and the parade marking the 80th anniversary of victory in World War II. He notes that Xi Jinping’s style and meetings with world leaders reflect China’s effort to expand its influence, but no significant shifts are seen in high-level international relations.
Portnikov pays special attention to Putin. Using the Russian leader’s actions and statements in China, the author analyzes Russia’s intentions in the war against Ukraine, highlighting that the Kremlin’s position remains unchanged—ending the war only on Russian terms. New signals from North Korea and Iran, whose friendship with Russia is brokered through China, reinforce this stance.
He also notes changes in the global balance: Donald Trump is now U.S. president, America’s position appears weaker internationally, and there are no new sanctions against Russia. This environment allows Putin to boost his positions and circumvent isolation.
The article delves into the prospects for the war: the Kremlin is not planning to end it, is demanding maximal concessions from Ukraine, and civilians continue to face severe threats. According to Portnikov, China, Russia and North Korea are creating a “new axis” in opposition to the West.
Addressing listener questions, Portnikov discusses nuclear blackmail, Western stances, the prospects of Ukrainian statehood, and the influence of authoritarian regimes. He concludes that a long war benefits China, North Korea, and to some extent Russia, and that only economic weakening of Russia and clear political will in the West can bring victory.
The article advocates realistic threat assessment, stressing that the China meetings did not yield a breakthrough for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but demonstrated Putin’s strengthened international standing and the emergence of a new authoritarian alliance.
