The issue of security guarantees for Ukraine remains central in the international arena. The discussion emphasizes two main forms of external support: security assistance in the form of arms, finances, sanctions against Russia, and political support. Ukraine is already receiving such guarantees through bilateral agreements, with about two dozen signed to date.
However, Ukraine seeks stronger wording on security guarantees than previously stipulated, for example, in the Budapest Memorandum. NATO's Article 5 is one model, regarding an attack on one member as an attack on all. Still, in most cases, allies tend to provide political and material support rather than direct military intervention.
The main guarantee for Ukraine is its own Armed Forces and defense industry, backed by a cohesive society and a mature political process. Experts view the coming decade as a period of global militarization and widespread turbulence, marked by the decline of single hegemonic powers and a transition to a multipolar world.
The European Union faces a leadership crisis and difficulty in achieving collective security decisions due to political fragmentation and internal problems of member states. Yet, the EU could become a significant geopolitical player if it reforms its decision-making models and strengthens unity.
The United States, experts observe, is focusing more on internal challenges, potentially leading to a reduced global presence. Actions by China and India signal the rise of new centers of power and the end of one-pole world order dominance.
Ultimately, Ukraine's main factors for resilience in the face of security challenges are its own resources, armed forces, and national unity, together with international support, which nonetheless requires active diplomacy and adaptive responses to a rapidly changing world.
