According to the Agency for Quantitative Information, almost 40% of Russian oil refineries suspended operations by late September. The total production of gasoline and diesel fuel fell by 6% in August and by another 18% in September. Roughly 70% of these shutdowns are attributed to Ukrainian drone strikes.
As a result, Russia's gasoline production dropped by 1 million tons, and the domestic fuel deficit reached 20%. The country's monthly demand is 400,000 tons of gasoline, prompting authorities to start importing fuel. Currently, Belarus is the main supplier.
Russia's oil refining industry consists of more than 30 plants, most of which are technically outdated and operate at a conversion depth of 62-63%. Modern plants, like those of Lukoil and Rosneft, use advanced technology and reach up to 93% conversion, mostly producing gasoline. Both old and newer plants have been significantly impacted.
Before the escalation of hostilities, overall fuel production exceeded domestic demand by 5%, allowing for some exports. Now, the deficit has led to a complete halt in diesel exports and an increased reliance on gasoline imports.
Logistical disruptions are aggravated by attacks on key infrastructure, including the Unecha and Mozyr refineries in Belarus, complicating Russia’s efforts to stabilize its fuel market.
Russia has implemented a ration card system for fuel distribution. Similar issues occurred in 2024, when the country had to import gasoline to cover its needs. Ukraine, now entirely dependent on imports, observes that Russia is facing the same challenge.
Despite slightly rising crude exports, Russia is forced to sell its oil at significant discounts, reducing state revenues. India and China remain the main buyers. Against this backdrop, reduced fuel exports and energy sector disruptions pose risks of further deterioration in Russia's domestic situation.
