Ukrainian special operations forces reported an attack on one of Russia's largest oil refineries, Kirishi Nefteorgsintez, in cooperation with the Russian insurgent movement 'Black Spark.' This event changes perceptions of Ukrainian operations inside Russia and their ability to undermine the Kremlin's capacity to wage war.
The existence of an organized insurgent movement in Russia remains uncertain, but even rumors of such a movement pose serious problems for Russian security services, which are the foundation of the regime since the late 1990s. These structures helped establish Vladimir Putin as the sole leader and set the goal of restoring the USSR's borders, even at the cost of war with neighboring states.
Until now, the opposition in Russia has been marginalized without broad popular support because of harsh government repression. Now, signs of armed resistance are emerging alongside political opposition. An insurgent movement within Russia may destabilize the country far more than political protest alone.
The return of thousands of Russian fighters from the war could become a new source of instability if they unite with existing insurgent elements. This presents the potential for large-scale destabilization not just in Russia, but also in neighboring countries, considering Russia's nuclear arsenal and influential criminal groups.
For Ukraine, it is important not only to win the war, but also to prepare for potential threats that a future Russian state crisis could pose to the region.
