Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych analyzes the ongoing internal debate within NATO regarding responses to provocations by the Russian Federation. The issue is complex, as the Alliance's security protocols were developed during the Cold War and have not evolved to address contemporary hybrid threats.
Media reports indicate tensions between NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal after Estonia invoked Article 4 over perceived threats from Russia. Rutte cautioned that frequent recourse to this article could undermine its impact, while Baltic countries argue for deterrence through a stronger response to aggression.
Article 4 of the Treaty has only been invoked nine times since NATO's founding, but such consultations have become more common due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Estonia's defense minister asserted the country's readiness to down Russian aircraft should there be an airspace violation.
Reiterovych emphasizes the need for NATO to review and update its security protocols, including the mechanisms for implementing Article 4 and Article 5, as well as clear procedures for responding to drone or aircraft incursions. He urges quick and decisive action to prevent further escalation and to maintain the Alliance's credibility.
The expert draws particular attention to the need for nuclear deterrence and enhanced defense on NATO's eastern flank. He warns that Russian provocations are likely to continue, making strategic decisions urgent to avoid risking the cohesion of the Alliance. According to Reiterovych, political will is vital for collective security.
