On October 15, in a broadcast by the Veza Public Analytics Center, economic expert Illia Neskhodovskyi gave a detailed interview about the current state of the Russian economy, military assistance to Ukraine from America and Europe, and key problems in Western assessments.
According to updated data from the International Monetary Fund, the Russian economy is trending downward, although the official IMF forecasts remain optimistic, projecting 1% growth in 2025. The expert stressed that the real situation is often worse than the official Russian statistics show. Much of the Western analysis relies on these official figures, which may be manipulated.
The issue of military aid to Ukraine was also discussed separately. European assistance often involves the purchase of American weapons, notably Patriot systems and other advanced equipment for missile and air defense. However, the volume of such support remains limited. For example, a $2 billion contract is insufficient to fully cover Ukraine's defense needs, particularly in missile defense. In addition, equipment provided sometimes needs repair or lacks crucial combat systems. According to Neskhodovskyi, altering the course of the war requires an increase in long-range weapon supplies that can strike deep into Russian territory.
The conversation touched on statements from NATO politicians and Donald Trump. The discussion also evaluated the willingness of the US and European countries to provide long-term support for Ukraine, and the effects of international sanctions and logistical changes on Russia's energy market and the financial situation of major companies, such as Gazprom and Rosneft.
Neskhodovskyi highlighted that sanctions, the reorientation of Russia's economy toward China, mounting debt, and a drop in energy revenues are all making Russia's budget situation more difficult. The deficit for the next three years is projected at $200 billion, even in the most optimistic estimates.
In conclusion, the expert noted that statements by Western politicians should be interpreted cautiously: their rhetoric is often aimed as much at supporting domestic arms manufacturers and political deals with the Kremlin as it is at supporting Ukraine's actual victory.
