In recent months, many have lost faith in Ukraine's chances of victory due to the difficult frontline situation and limited external support. However, a strategic overview gives some grounds for optimism. US General and former CIA Director David Petraeus has presented a three-step plan which, in his view, could secure Ukraine’s victory.
Petraeus emphasizes the need for large-scale expansion in the production of drones and missiles, granting Ukraine security guarantees, and tightening sanctions against Russia. The general believes that if these measures occur concurrently, Moscow will be unable to achieve new successes on the battlefield and will be forced to halt its military campaign.
The general highlights Russia’s economic decline: growth has nearly stagnated, inflation remains high, and military spending now accounts for over a third of the federal budget. The budget deficit is growing, and the National Welfare Fund has shrunk sharply and could be depleted by the end of 2026.
Petraeus points to the use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine's defense industry, proposing a scheme for a €200 billion reparations-backed credit. He also stresses the critical importance of delivering modern air defense systems, missiles, and ammunition to Ukraine for counteroffensive operations and maintaining battlefield initiative.
Russia faces acute economic and workforce challenges—an aging labor force, a shortage of specialists, forced recruitment of prisoners and minors—all underlining a deep crisis. Despite heavy losses and economic pain from sanctions, Russia continues its aggression and provocations against NATO while shelling Ukraine on a massive scale.
Petraeus believes Ukraine has unique chances for victory due to rapid innovation and its growing capability to produce drones and long-range missiles, but warns that the window of opportunity is limited. Sustained Western resolve remains crucial for Ukraine's success.
Victory is possible, Petraeus asserts, if Western support is coordinated and robust, with the use of frozen assets and continued sanctions pressure on Russia.
