On February 6, the Veza Centre for Public Analytics hosted an in-depth discussion on the Ukraine-Russia negotiations in Abu Dhabi. Renowned Ukrainian experts Vadym Denysenko, Oleh Penzy, and Volodymyr Fesenko participated in the panel.
The incident of an assassination attempt on Russian General Alexeyev—a senior GRU officer—is highlighted as a factor that may complicate or delay the negotiation process. Experts note this event fits into Kremlin’s broader tactic: escalate tensions, blame Ukraine for any breakdown, and increase pressure amidst Donald Trump’s engagement and an ongoing difficult war.
Alexeyev’s role as first deputy head of Russia’s GRU and his management of the Wagner Group are explained, emphasizing his influence in both the intelligence field and negotiations. The experts interpret this attack as part of a broader campaign to eliminate Wagner leadership after Prigozhin’s death.
The discussion points out a growing trend—Russia’s heightened demands at the Abu Dhabi talks, such as recognition of Donbas as Russian, which is an absolute “red line” for Ukraine. There is an ongoing Russian effort to shift blame for any negotiation impasse onto Ukraine, using escalations like energy crises, infrastructure strikes, and protracted fighting.
The economic and financial dimensions are also examined: Western sanctions, Russia’s reduced oil revenues, and Moscow’s increasing reliance on China. The role of China as Russia’s main partner and global resource broker, and US policy under Trump—particularly in energy markets and sanctions—are discussed as crucial factors influencing future outcomes.
Experts forecast a drawn-out negotiation process over the next six months, marked by attempted escalation and the testing of “red lines” especially around Donbas. Key variables include economic sanctions, battlefield developments, and the strategic interplay between the US, China, and the EU. No definitive results are expected before summer, with Russia’s main tactic being to prolong talks until shifts in the global context.
