On August 1, the Veza Civic Analytics Center hosted Arthur Kharetonov, president of the Liberal Democratic League of Ukraine, discussing the latest on US-China trade negotiations and their implications for the war in Ukraine.
According to the expert, 134% tariffs on Chinese goods have been temporarily postponed until a major US-China trade deal is reached. Negotiations have proceeded through many rounds, deadlines are repeatedly extended, and technical details mostly remain undisclosed. The most recent rounds were held in Switzerland and London, with the central outcome being partial tariff retention until a final agreement.
The talks significantly affect global geopolitics. The advantage currently lies with the US: major international partners have signed anti-China agreements with Washington. The EU and Japan have also reached similar deals. China’s main leverage is its continued support of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Should Beijing withhold such support, the war could end rapidly.
Kharetonov notes that the US is exerting tariff pressure on China in response to its support of Russia. The negotiations cover not only the economy but also geopolitics—the US seeks to make China pay a price for supporting the war. At the same time, the US expects its partners, including Ukraine, to join the anti-China coalition.
Inside China, strict US tariffs restrict economic prospects, threaten manufacturers, and cause social dissatisfaction. Proxies in East Asia are being lost, and new production locations are established in Vietnam, Thailand, India, and elsewhere.
US negotiator Donald Trump aims to separate Russia from China, weakening Moscow as a potential ally of Beijing. The US combines political and economic pressure and has repeatedly offered Russia potential agreement options, but with no results so far.
The trade agreement's fate hinges on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, with China’s ongoing support for Russia remaining the main issue. Further sanctions and tariffs could severely limit Beijing's economic capabilities.
In conclusion, Kharetonov states that the global community is diversifying supply chains and reducing reliance on China. The US and EU strengthen their security, while China's future depends on its continued stance toward the war in Ukraine.
