No significant changes in the Russia-Ukraine war are expected between August 8–11. According to the expert, the outcome of the conflict is being shaped not so much in Kyiv or Moscow but in negotiations between the leaders of the US, China, and likely the EU.
For Donald Trump, the war serves primarily as another argument in trading negotiations between the US and China, and deadlines for Russia-related issues have been aligned with progress in US-EU negotiations for a new trade deal. The EU, being an association of independent states, was unable to strongly resist US tariffs and ultimately made concessions, enabling the US to begin active negotiations with China.
In response to applied tariffs, China routed goods through Europe to reach the US, but American authorities struck at these transit flows. As a result of another round of global talks, China finds itself in a difficult negotiating position with reduced support from the EU, and US economic pressure is growing.
The situation in Ukraine is closely linked to these negotiations. The EU views the war as its own problem and insists that it be resolved as part of a broader US-China-EU diplomatic package.
Analysts emphasize the role of China in rebuilding Russia’s military-industrial potential and sustaining its economy under sanctions. China not only supplies components directly to Russia but also helps bypass Western restrictions. According to European experts, Russia’s economic dependence on China is critical.
China’s decision on cooperation with Russia, in exchange for US concessions, could be the critical factor that accelerates the end of the war.
