The full-scale Russian war against Ukraine has triggered one of Moscow’s biggest geopolitical failures since the Soviet collapse. Between 2022 and 2025, countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, long considered in Russia’s orbit, have increasingly distanced themselves, seeking alternative partnerships and economic reorientation.
Azerbaijan stands out as a symbol of this transformation—shifting from close ally to near adversary. In 2023, Azerbaijan conducted a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh as Russian peacekeepers abstained. By 2024, the entire Russian peacekeeping contingent had withdrawn from the region. Simultaneously, Azerbaijan is deepening cooperation with Turkey and expanding energy exports to Europe.
Armenia froze its CSTO membership and reduced its positive perception of Russia from 93% in 2019 to 31% in 2023. Prime Minister Pashinyan declared Moscow a security threat, and a pro-Russian coup attempt failed. Despite an influx of Russians and participation in sanctions evasion, Armenia’s economy has grown.
Kazakhstan is cautiously distancing itself—boosting trade with China—while Uzbekistan is developing the "middle corridor" transit route that bypasses Russia. Azerbaijan’s gas exports to the EU have grown, it is investing heavily in renewable energy, and the country grows closer to Turkey and the EU.
The region’s increasing alternative partnerships, Moscow’s military failures, declining trade volumes, and generational change among political elites have eroded local trust in Russia. Notable diplomatic and political scandals have erupted over place names, monument removals, and other conflicts.
The CSTO has lost its influence, Russian military bases are being reduced or face closure, and regional states are diversifying their international ties. Even an end to the war in Ukraine is unlikely to restore Moscow’s previous level of influence.
