On August 5, at the Center for Public Analytics 'Veza', Valeriy Kolochuk and political scientist Ihor Reiterovych discussed the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the deadline set by Donald Trump for its resolution—August 8.
The experts noted that rapid end to hostilities is unlikely, as this would require significant negotiations between involved parties. They suggested that the Vitkof mission will likely be unsuccessful, as Putin is unlikely to agree to the proposed terms. If a truce is not reached, Trump may increase pressure by introducing new tariffs and sanctions, primarily targeting Russia, India, and China.
Special attention was given to the actual and potential support for Ukraine, including US military assistance, arms sales, and encouraging Europe to make further arms purchases. The idea of a new lend-lease program for Ukraine was also considered.
The experts believe that India is likely to gradually reduce its cooperation with Russia for economic reasons, while talks with China are more strategic and could influence the global political landscape. The discussion also touched on US efforts to balance the oil market by adjusting pressure on Iran.
Another noteworthy topic was the cancelled visit of Turkish President Erdoğan to Kyiv. His main aim would have been to strengthen Turkey's role as a potential mediator in future negotiations on ending the war. According to the experts, the visit was postponed pending political developments in the US and Russia's reaction.
In conclusion, Kolochuk and Reiterovych stressed that further developments largely depend on decisions made by Donald Trump. The EU, Turkey, and other actors are expected to react according to his chosen policies. No major breakthroughs are expected yet, and the situation will become clearer after August 8.
